Fall is starting to show its color in Linn County, with welcome rain arriving the first week of September.

While much has been written about the scant snowpack in the Cascades, rainfall in the county’s foothills has also been in short supply.

Joe Holmberg has tracked rainfall on his tree farm for the past 25 years. For the year, his rain gauge has captured just over 38 inches, he said.

“Unless we receive significant rain in September, we will have the second driest water year in the 25 years I have been recording,” said Holmberg. “This has been kind of a meager year so far.”

Holmberg’s records show the wettest year in the past 25 was in 2018 with 61.91 inches and the driest in 2010 with 36.96 inches.

“We are nearing the end of the 2026 water year which runs from the beginning of October 2025 to the end of September 2026,” explained Holmberg. Averge rainfall at his site 3 miles north of Waterloo is about 45 inches.

A clump of big leaf maple contrasts with a hemlock on Sept. 4, 2026. Photo credit Larry Mauter.

Above-average temperatures are expected for the next three months, according to the National Weather Service long-range forecast. Precipitation is expected to be normal during that time, according to a NWS forecast posted August 20.

In early June 2026, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center declared that an El Niño has developed and it is expected to strengthen in the Pacific Ocean.

Though El Niño conditions are normally subtle in the summer months in the Pacific Northwest, NOAA predicts a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November 2026 to January 2027. Weather patterns throughout Alaska, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington are affected by El Niño, particularly in the winter season.

“Though El Niño increases the chance of these weather patterns occurring, many other factors affect weather and climate in the Northwest, so the typical effects are not a certainty,” according to the USDA website.